Have we missed the 1.5 degree target?

Global heating means more deadly storms like Hurricane Irma (Pic: Public domain)

Ahead of the Cop30 talks in Brazil, United Nations secretary general Antonio Guterres announced that humanity has failed in its efforts to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius.

His claim is broadly supported by climate science. Even if governments keep their promises, we will already exceed 1.5 degrees within the next five to 10 years and reach about 2.5 degrees by 2100. If governments fail to keep their promises—as they have so far—4 degrees could be exceeded by 2100.

It will mean the collapse of almost all ecosystems, the destruction of the livelihoods of billions of people worldwide, mass poverty, violence, repression and wars over land and resources.

It is still physically possible to limit temperature rise to below 1.5 in the long term. What matters is which class succeeds in imposing its interests.

The year 2024 was the first year in history that was 1.5 degrees warmer on average than the “pre-industrial level” of 1850-1900. This is very alarming. But it does not yet mean that we have missed the 1.5 degrees target.

Annual mean temperatures fluctuate—one year can be particularly warm, another somewhat cooler. So scientists use long term averages. And the 30-year average value is still below 1.5 degrees.

However, it would not take much to exceed it. A study published in Nature Climate Science in 2023 estimates the remaining carbon budget for a 50 percent chance of meeting the 1.5 degree target at 250 gigatonnes or 250 billion tonnes.

Currently, 40 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide are emitted every year. If we carry on with business as usual, the budget will be exhausted in six years. There are very few options for using technology to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Above all, emissions must fall rapidly to zero.

If warming permanently exceeds 1.5 degrees, the ice sheets of West Antarctica and Greenland could tip irreversibly. Sea levels would rise by 10 metres. Island states and megacities would be swallowed by the sea. Droughts, floods, wildfires and heatwaves would kill even more people worldwide, push many into homelessness, and endanger food and water supplies.

Poorer people would suffer more from heatwaves due to worse health care, worse working conditions and poorer access to air-conditioned spaces. Global warming is not an abstract crisis—it is already lethal. If politicians and fossil fuel corporations allow any further warming they are signalling nothing other than “we don’t give a damn about you.”

But imagine if workers decided democratically how to deploy labour, technology and research. A complete phase-out of fossil fuels would be a matter of a few years.

We could coordinate to provide everyone with what is needed for a good, modern life. No resources would be wasted on wars, advertising or disposable products. We would not ship goods around the world repeatedly for the profits of billionaires. We would repair and recycle things, not just when it happens to be profitable.

Sunlight, wind, tides and geothermal heat could provide sufficient energy. Switching to variable renewable energy sources would be a challenge but technologically feasible.

Large-scale restoration of peatlands and wetlands and large-scale reforestation could reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide. So that even after an overshoot the long-term temperature increase could be limited to below 1.5 degrees.

Warming would inevitably already bring changes to the Earth system. But it would not have to lead to humanitarian catastrophes. Relocation of people from permanently uninhabitable areas would not have to be blocked by border regimes.

Even in such a scenario there would be disputes and debates, mistakes would be made and later corrected. But decisions would be based on genuine need, not return on investment for the super-rich.

Governments claim they hold back climate action because they don’t want living costs to rise further. But they have no scruples about cutting social benefits and lowering the living standards of the population. Prices would only have to rise if the energy transition had to be made profitable for energy corporations.

States try to sell workers’ interests as merely derivative interests of the economy. The story goes that if the economy does well, you will have a job and maybe even a good wage, so the top priority must be a thriving economy—even if you have to undermine your own livelihood and that of your children so a tiny few can get ever richer.

To keep the economy healthy, we continue to rely on expensive individual transport and fossil infrastructure. Because capitalism is in crisis, states invest in rearmament. States become more authoritarian as they seek a scapegoat for people’s problems. And the far right gets more space to fight any emancipation from below. In crisis capitalism there is hardly any room left for sustainability and justice.

We must pull the emergency brake. The recent general strikes in Italy in solidarity with Palestine have shown what force is capable of this—the working class. It can not only paralyse the system but also ensure that we meet the 1.5 degrees target.