Erdogan leads as Turkish election heads to round two

The repressive president of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Picture: GCIS)

The Turkish presidential election will go into a second round on 28 May. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has ruled for 20 years as prime minister or president, looks more likely to win.

On Monday he was on more than 49 percent of the vote, ahead of his main rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu on around 45 percent, according to preliminary results. The opposition said there was fixing and cheating at some polling stations. A third candidate, Sinan Ogan, is from the far right and is unlikely to back Kilicdaroglu.

Erdogan has imposed a repressive state in a country of 85 million people. He has complete control over the media, the judiciary and large parts of the economy and has brutally repressed the Kurdish movement.

Many polls suggested Erdogan might lose the vote. Soaring price rises hit workers and the poor hard, The official inflation rate was 85 percent last October and is still 45 percent.

Erdogan was also responsible for the lack of preparation and the slow response to the earthquakes which killed more than 50,000 people and displaced millions earlier this year. In a desperate effort to survive, Erdogan gave out a series of bribes and handouts in the run-up to the voting. He announced that lower-paid government workers would receive a pay boost of 45 percent. He also pledged a free month of natural gas for consumers, reduced electricity prices and increases in the minimum wage and pensions for public workers.

This was coupled with brutal denunciations of LGBT+ people and sectarian baiting against Kilicdaroglu being an Alevi—a minority religious group. Erdogan rules through fear, but he does retain a sizable base because he came to office defending the role of Islam and Muslim rights, which had been trampled on by “secular” governments and the military.

Kilicdaroglu did not offer an inspiring alternative. He has a record of campaigning against Erdogan and challenging him over democracy. He called for civil rights and more political freedom.

As results came in he said, “If our people say there’s a second round, we will respect that. Erdogan didn’t win the vote of confidence he was expecting. In the next 15 days we will fight for rights, laws and justice in this country.” 

But he coupled this with support for mainstream economic policies that would mean hardship for many poor people. And he pledged to remove the 3.6 million Syrian refugees from Turkey within two years.

In the last few days of the campaign Kilicdaroglu bitterly attacked Russia, perhaps hoping to endear himself to the Nato leaders. Turkey is part of Nato, but Erdogan has veered between backing for the West and moving closer to Russia when it suited him to play-off one block against another.

Parliamentary elections that were held at the same time as the presidential vote showed Erdogan’s coalition ahead at the beginning of this week. The battle against Erdogan goes on.